Fibonacci Extensions

The next use of Fibonacci will be using them to find targets.

Gotta always keep in mind "Zombieland Rules of Survival #22" - When in doubt, know your way out! Let's start with an example in an uptrend.

In an uptrend, the general idea is to take profits on a long trade at a Fibonacci Price Extension Level. You determine the Fibonacci extension levels by using three mouse clicks.

First, click on a significant Swing Low, then drag your cursor and click on the most recent Swing High. Finally, drag your cursor back down and click on any of the retracement levels.

This will display each of the Price Extension Levels showing both the ratio and corresponding price levels. Pretty neat, huh?

Let's go back to that example with the USD/CHF chart we showed you in the previous lesson. 

The 50.0% Fib level held strongly as support and, after three tests, the pair finally resumed its uptrend. In the chart above, you can even see price rise above the previous Swing High.

Let's pop on the Fibonacci extension tool to see where would have been a good place to take off some profits. 

Here's a recap of what happened after the retracement Swing Low occurred:

• Price rallied all the way to the 61.8% level, which lined up closely with the previous Swing High.
• It fell back to the 38.2% level, where it found support
• Price then rallied and found resistance at the 100% level.
• A couple of days later, price rallied yet again before finding resistance at the 161.8% level.

As you can see from the example, the 61.8%, 100% and 161.8% levels all would have been good places to take off some profits.

 Now, let's take a look at an example of using Fibonacci extension levels in a downtrend.

In a downtrend, the general idea is to take profits on a short trade at a Fibonacci extension level since the market often finds support at these levels.

Let's take another look at that downtrend on the 1-hour EUR/USD chart we showed you in the Fib Sticks lesson. 

Here, we saw a doji form just under the 61.8% Fib level. Price then reversed as sellers jumped back in, and brought price all the way back down to the Swing Low.

Let's put up that Fib Extension tool to see where would have been some good places to take profits had we shorted at the 61.8% retracement level. 

Here's what happened after price reversed from the Fibonacci retracement level:

• Price found support at the 38.2% level
• The 50.0% level held as initial support, then became an area of interest
• The 61.8% level also became an area of interest, before price shot down to test the previous Swing Low
• If you look ahead, you'll find out that the 100% extension level also acted as support

We could have taken off profits at the 38.2%, 50.0%, or 61.8% levels. All these levels acted as support, possibly because other traders were keeping an eye out for these levels for profit taking as well.

The examples illustrate that price finds at least some temporary support or resistance at the Fibonacci extension levels - not always, but often enough to correctly adjust your position to take profits and manage your risk.

Of course, there are some problems to deal with here.

First, there is no way to know which exact Fibonacci extension level will provide resistance. Any of these levels may or may not act as support or resistance.

Another problem is determining which Swing Low to start from in creating the Fibonacci extension levels.

One way is from the last Swing Low as we did in the examples; another is from the lowest Swing Low of the past 30 bars. Again, the point is that there is no one right way to do it, but with a lot of practice, you'll make better decisions of picking Swing points.

You will have to use your discretion in using the Fibonacci extension tool. You will have to judge how much longer the trend will continue. Later on, we will teach you methods to help you determine the strength of a trend.

For now, let's move on to stop loss placement!

 

Fibonacci

Fibonacci Who?

We will be using Fibonacci ratios a lot in our trading so you better learn it and love it like your mother's home cooking. Fibonacci is a huge subject and there are many different Fibonacci studies with weird-sounding names but we're going to stick to two: retracement and extension.
Let us first start by introducing you to the Fib man himself...Leonardo Fibonacci.

No, Leonardo Fibonacci isn't some famous chef. Actually, he was a famous Italian mathematician, also known as a super duper uber ultra geek.
He had an "Aha!" moment when he discovered a simple series of numbers that created ratios describing the natural proportions of things in the universe.
The ratios arise from the following number series: 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144...
This series of numbers is derived by starting with 1 followed by 2 and then adding 1 + 2 to get 3, the third number. Then, adding 2 + 3 to get 5, the fourth number, and so on.
After the first few numbers in the sequence, if you measure the ratio of any number to the succeeding higher number, you get .618. For example, 34 divided by 55 equals .618.
If you measure the ratio between alternate numbers you get .382. For example, 34 divided by 89 = 0.382 and that's as far as into the explanation as we'll go.
These ratios are called the "golden mean". Okay that's enough mumbo jumbo. With all those numbers, you could put an elephant to sleep. We'll just cut to the chase; these are the ratios you HAVE to know:
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.236, 0.382, 0.500, 0.618, 0.764
Fibonacci Extension Levels
0, 0.382, 0.618, 1.000, 1.382, 1.618
You won't really need to know how to calculate all of this. Your charting software will do all the work for you. Besides, we've got a nice Fibonacci calculator that can magically calculate those levels for you. However, it's always good to be familiar with the basic theory behind the indicator so you'll have the knowledge to impress your date.
Traders use the Fibonacci retracement levels as potential support and resistance areas. Since so many traders watch these same levels and place buy and sell orders on them to enter trades or place stops, the support and resistance levels tend to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Traders use the Fibonacci extension levels as profit taking levels. Again, since so many traders are watching these levels to place buy and sell orders to take profits, this tool tends to work more often than not due to self-fulfilling expectations.

Most charting software includes both Fibonacci retracement levels and extension level tools. In order to apply Fibonacci levels to your charts, you'll need to identify Swing High and Swing Low points.

A Swing High is a candlestick with at least two lower highs on both the left and right of itself.

A Swing Low is a candlestick with at least two higher lows on both the left and right of itself.

You got all that? Don't worry, we'll explain retracements, extensions, and most importantly, how to grab some pips using the Fib tool in the following sections.

 

Fibonacci Retracement

The first thing you should know about the Fibonacci tool is that it works best when the market is trending.

The idea is to go long (or buy) on a retracement at a Fibonacci support level when the market is trending up, and to go short (or sell) on a retracement at a Fibonacci resistance level when the market is trending down.

In order to find these retracement levels, you have to find the recent significant Swing Highs and Swings Lows. Then, for downtrends, click on the Swing High and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing Low.

For uptrends, do the opposite. Click on the Swing Low and drag the cursor to the most recent Swing High.

Got that? Now, let's take a look at some examples on how to apply Fibonacci retracements levels in the markets. 

Uptrend

This is a daily chart of AUD/USD. 

Here we plotted the Fibonacci retracement Levels by clicking on the Swing Low at .6955 on April 20 and dragging the cursor to the Swing High at .8264 on June 3. Tada! The software magically shows you the retracement levels.

As you can see from the chart, the retracement levels were .7955 (23.6%), .7764 (38.2%), .7609 (50.0%), .7454 (61.8%), and .7263 (76.4%).

Now, the expectation is that if AUD/USD retraces from the recent high, it will find support at one of those Fibonacci levels because traders will be placing buy orders at these levels as price pulls back.

Now, let's look at what happened after the Swing High occurred.

Price pulled back right through the 23.6% level and continued to shoot down over the next couple of weeks. It even tested the 38.2% level but was unable to close below it.

Later on, around July 14, the market resumed its upward move and eventually broke through the swing high. Clearly, buying at the 38.2% Fibonacci level would have been a profitable long term trade!

Downtrend

Now, let's see how we would use the Fibonacci retracement tool during a downtrend. Below is a 4-hour chart of EUR/USD.

As you can see, we found our Swing High at 1.4195 on January 26 and our Swing Low at 1.3854 a few days later on February 2. The retracement levels are 1.3933 (23.6%), 1.3983 (38.2%), 1.4023 (50.0%), 1.4064 (61.8%) and 1.4114 (76.4%).

The expectation for a downtrend is that if price retraces from this low, it will encounter resistance at one of the Fibonacci levels because traders will be ready with sell orders there.

Let's take a look at what happened next. 

Yowza, isn't that a thing of beauty?! The market did try to rally, stalled below the 38.2% level for a bit before testing the 50.0% level. If you had some orders either at the 38.2% or 50.0% levels, you would've made some mad pips on that trade.

 In these two examples, we see that price found some temporary support or resistance at Fibonacci retracement levels. Because of all the people who use the Fibonacci tool, those levels become self-fulfilling support and resistance levels.

One thing you should take note of is that price won't always bounce from these levels. They should be looked at as areas of interest, or as Cyclopip likes to call them, "KILL ZONES!" We'll teach you more about that later on.

For now, there's something you should always remember about using the Fibonacci tool and it's that they are not always simple to use! If they were that simple, traders would always place their orders at Fib levels and the markets would trend forever.

In the next lesson, we'll show you what can happen when Fibonacci levels fail.

 

When Fibonacci Fails

Back in Grade 1, we said that support and resistance levels eventually break. Well, seeing as how Fibonacci levels are used to find support and resistance levels, this also applies to Fibonacci!

Now, let's go through an example when the Fibonacci retracement tool fails.

Below is a 4-hour chart of GBP/USD.

Here, you see that the pair has been in downtrend, so you decided to take out your Fibonacci tool to help you spot a good entry point. You use the Swing High at 1.5383, with a swing low at 1.4799.

You see that the pair has been stalling at the 50.0% level for the past couple of candles.

You say to yourself, "Oh man, that 50.0% Fib level! It's holding baby! Time to short this sucka!"

You short at market and start day dreaming that you'll be driving down Rodeo Drive in your new Maserati with Scarlett Johansson (or if you're a lady trader, Robert Pattinson) in the passenger seat...

Now, if you really did put an order at that level, not only would your dreams go up in smoke, but your account would take a serious hit if you didn't manage your risk properly!

Take a look at what happened. 

It turns out that that Swing Low was the bottom of the downtrend and market began to rally above the Swing High point.

What's the lesson here?

While Fibonacci levels give you a higher probability of success, like other technical tools, they don't always work. You don't know if price will reverse to the 38.2% level before resuming the trend.

Sometimes it may hit 50.0% or the 61.8% levels before turning around. Heck, sometimes price will just ignore Mr. Fibonacci and blow past all the levels just like how Lebron James bullies his way through the lane with sheer force.

Remember, the market will not always resume its uptrend after finding temporary support or resistance, but instead continue to go past the recent Swing High or Low.

 Another common problem in using the Fibonacci tool is determining which Swing Low and Swing High to use.
People look at charts differently, look at different time frames, and have their own fundamental biases. It is likely that Stephen from Pipbuktu and the girl from Pipanema have different ideas of where the Swing High and Swing Low points should be.
The bottom line is that there is no absolute right way to do it, especially when the trend on the chart isn't so clear. Sometimes it becomes a guessing game.
That's why you need to hone your skills and combine the Fibonacci tool with other tools in your forex toolbox to help give you a higher probability of success.
In the next lesson, we'll show you how to use the Fibonacci tool in combination with other forms of support and resistance levels and candlesticks.