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Showing posts with label How to Trade Using MACD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label How to Trade Using MACD. Show all posts

Saturday, October 1, 2011

Putting It All Together


Now that you know how some of the most common chart indicators work, you're ready to get down and dirty with some examples. Better yet, let's combine some of these indicators and see how their trade signals pan out.
In a perfect world, we could take just one of these indicators and trade strictly by what that indicator told us. The problem is that we DON'T live in a perfect world, and each of these indicators has imperfections.
That is why many traders combine different indicators together so that they can "screen" each other. They might have 3 different indicators and they won't trade unless all 3 indicators give them the same signal.
In this first example, we've got the Bollinger bands and the Stochastic on EUR/USD's 4-hour chart. Since the market seems to be ranging or moving sideways, we'd better watch out for the Bollinger bounce.



Check out that those sell signals from the Bollinger bands and the Stochastic. EUR/USD climbed until the top of the band, which usually acts as a resistance level.
At the same time, the Stochastic reached the overbought area, suggesting that the price could drop down soon.
And what happened next?
EUR/USD fell by around 300 pips and you would've made a hefty profit if you took that short trade.
Later on, the price made contact with the bottom of the band, which usually serves as a support level. This means that the pair could bounce up from there. With the Stochastic in the oversold area, it means we should go long.
If you took that trade, you would have gotten around 400 pips! Not bad!
Here's another example, with the RSI and the MACD this time.




When the RSI reached the overbought area and gave a sell signal, the MACD soon followed with a downward crossover, which is also a sell signal. And, as you can see, the price did move downhill from there.
Hooray for our indicators!
Later on, the RSI dipped to the oversold region and gave a buy signal. A few hours after, the MACD made an upward crossover, which is also a buy signal. From there, the price made a steady climb. More pips for us, yipee!
You probably noticed in this example that the RSI gives signals ahead of the MACD. Because of the various properties and magic formulas for the technical indicators, some really do give early signals while others are a bit delayed.
You'll learn more about this in sixth grade.
 As you continue your journey as a trader, you will discover which indicators work best for you. We can tell you that we like using MACD, the Stochastic, and RSI, but you might have a different preference.
Every trader out there has tried to find the "magic combination" of indicators that will give them the right signals all the time, but the truth is that there is no such thing.
We urge you to study each indicator on its own until you know the tendencies of how it behaves relative to price movement, and then come up with your own combination that you understand and that fits your trading style.
Later on in the course, we will show you an example of a system that combines different indicators to give you an idea of how they can complement each other.

Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)


MACD is an acronym for Moving Average Convergence Divergence. This tool is used to identify moving averages that are indicating a new trend, whether it's bullish or bearish. After all, our top priority in trading is being able to find a trend, because that is where the most money is made.




With an MACD chart, you will usually see three numbers that are used for its settings.
  • The first is the number of periods that is used to calculate the faster moving average.
  • The second is the number of periods that is used in the slower moving average.
  • And the third is the number of bars that is used to calculate the moving average of the difference between the faster and slower moving averages.
For example, if you were to see "12, 26, 9" as the MACD parameters (which is usually the default setting for most charting packages), this is how you would interpret it:
  • The 12 represents the previous 12 bars of the faster moving average.
  • The 26 represents the previous 26 bars of the slower moving average.
  • The 9 represents the previous 9 bars of the difference between the two moving averages. This is plotted by vertical lines called a histogram (the green lines in the chart above).
There is a common misconception when it comes to the lines of the MACD. The two lines that are drawn are NOT moving averages of the price. Instead, they are the moving averages of the DIFFERENCE between two moving averages.

In our example above, the faster moving average is the moving average of the difference between the 12 and 26-period moving averages. The slower moving average plots the average of the previous MACD line. Once again, from our example above, this would be a 9-period moving average.
This means that we are taking the average of the last 9 periods of the faster MACD line and plotting it as our slower moving average. This smoothens out the original line even more, which gives us a more accurate line.
The histogram simply plots the difference between the fast and slow moving average. If you look at our original chart, you can see that, as the two moving averages separate, the histogram gets bigger.
This is called divergence because the faster moving average is "diverging" or moving away from the slower moving average.
As the moving averages get closer to each other, the histogram gets smaller. This is called convergence because the faster moving average is "converging" or getting closer to the slower moving average.
And that, my friend, is how you get the name, Moving Average Convergence Divergence! Whew, we need to crack our knuckles after that one!
Ok, so now you know what MACD does. Now we'll show you what MACD can do for YOU.

How to Trade Using MACD
Because there are two moving averages with different "speeds", the faster one will obviously be quicker to react to price movement than the slower one.
When a new trend occurs, the fast line will react first and eventually cross the slower line. When this "crossover" occurs, and the fast line starts to "diverge" or move away from the slower line, it often indicates that a new trend has formed.



From the chart above, you can see that the fast line crossed under the slow line and correctly identified a new downtrend. Notice that when the lines crossed, the histogram temporarily disappears.
This is because the difference between the lines at the time of the cross is 0. As the downtrend begins and the fast line diverges away from the slow line, the histogram gets bigger, which is good indication of a strong trend.
Let's take a look at an example.



In EUR/USD's 1-hour chart above, the fast line crossed above the slow line while the histogram disappeared. This suggested that the brief downtrend would eventually reverse.
From then, EUR/USD began shooting up as it started a new uptrend. Imagine if you went long after the crossover, you would've gained almost 200 pips!
There is one drawback to MACD. Naturally, moving averages tend to lag behind price. After all, it's just an average of historical prices.
Since the MACD represents moving averages of other moving averages and is smoothed out by another moving average, you can imagine that there is quite a bit of lag. However, MACD is still one of the most favored tools by many traders.